Occam’s razor is actually talking that theory with fewest assumptions is likely correct.

So let’s see:

• the whole block where hotel is located was off limits, an armed guy somehow had no problems going through that to get to the hotel, carrying handgun, shotgun and knives he somehow convinced police that he supposed to be at the event
• when charging through metal detector they somehow managed to stop him without even wounding him, at somebody was brave enough to drop their gun and tackle a guy who supposedly shot at USSS
• no shotgun visible on the camera footage
• also, no other camera footage
• trump who was skipping every WHCD event decided to attend the one where a reporter supposed to receive an award for publishing his birthday card (taking about “beautiful secrets”) to Epstein
• from the leak 3 days earlier we learned that trump was planning to leave the event early after giving a speech, fortunately for him the whole event (where the award should be given) was cancelled
• a coincidence that it comes at convenient time when everyone realized he fucked us up with Iranian war and is unable to unfuck it, but at least no one talks about
• a coincidence that it happens right during primaries that didn’t look good for him
• they had access to his manifesto almost immediately

vs

• Have a guy run into lobby and claim he was a shooter to disrupt the event
• claim he shot USSS agent in the bulletproof vest (who can prove that didn’t happen when this admin controls everything)